As the November 5th election approaches, the outcome holds significant implications for the solar industry in the United States. A potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency or the continuation of Kamala Harris as president (should Biden be unable to serve) could lead to contrasting policies that would shape the direction of solar energy development, investment, and job growth.

The Trump Administration and Solar Energy

During Donald Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, several key policies directly affected the solar industry.

1. Tariffs on Solar Imports: One of the most impactful measures was the imposition of tariffs on imported solar panels and cells, which started in January 2018. These tariffs increased costs for solar installers by about 30%, which, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), led to a decrease in solar installations by about 11% in 2018 and 2019 (SEIA, 2019). The tariffs aimed to protect U.S. manufacturers, but critics argued they hindered solar adoption and led to job losses in the installation sector (EIA, 2018).

2. Reductions in Federal Support: The Trump administration proposed cuts to the U.S. Department of Energy’s renewable energy budget, which included funding for solar technologies (NREL, 2019). This resulted in diminished resources for research and development, potentially stunting innovative advancements within the industry.

3. Rollbacks of Environmental Regulations: In line with Trump’s focus on deregulation, several environmental protections were rolled back, prioritizing fossil fuel industries over renewables (NRDC, 2020). While this gained support from traditional energy sectors, it could pose long-term challenges for clean energy expansion, including solar.

Overall, if Trump were to regain the presidency, the solar industry could face renewed tariffs, reduced federal funding for businesses and homeowners, and policies favoring fossil fuels, which would likely slow the sector's growth and inhibit job creation.

The Harris Administration and Solar Energy

Should Kamala Harris win the presidency, the solar industry and homeowners are likely to continue benefiting from supportive policies aimed at promoting renewable energy.

1. Tax Incentives and Funding: Under the Biden administration, Harris has supported the extension and expansion of tax credits for solar energy projects. The Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which allows homeowners and businesses to deduct a percentage of the cost of installing a solar energy system from their federal taxes, was preserved at 26% for installation through 2022 (SEIA, 2021). This incentive has been pivotal in promoting solar installations across the nation and has played a significant role in job creation.

2. Significant Federal Investments: The Biden-Harris administration has committed substantial investments toward clean energy as part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the American Jobs Plan. These initiatives aim to allocate billions toward clean energy technologies, including solar, to create jobs and combat climate change (White House, 2021). The administration’s goal is to achieve a carbon-free power sector by 2035, which would necessitate rapid growth in renewable energy deployment.

3. International Climate Leadership: The Biden administration has rejoined international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord, emphasizing the U.S. commitment to climate goals (UNFCCC, 2021). This approach can foster an environment conducive to renewable investment and innovation, making the U.S. a leader in the global solar market.

Impact on U.S. Jobs in the Solar Industry

The policies enacted by either administration would substantially impact jobs across various sectors of the solar industry. If Trump's administration were to resume, the tariffs on imported solar components could lead to job losses in sales and financing sectors as higher prices deter customers from choosing solar options. Additionally, manufacturers relying on imported materials may downsize or face financial strain, affecting the entire supply chain. Conversely, the Harris administration's policies could lead to job growth across all sectors—sales teams would likely see increased demand for solar systems, while financing companies could benefit from a rise in project funding. Moreover, manufacturing jobs could expand as domestic production increases due to federal incentives and investment initiatives in renewable energy technologies.

Future Outlook

The outcome of the 2024 election stands to significantly influence the trajectory of the solar industry in the United States. A potential Trump administration could reintroduce tariffs and reduce federal support, ultimately slowing growth in renewable energy and jeopardizing jobs in the sector. Conversely, a Harris administration is poised to extend support for solar energy and encourage further investment, helping to bolster job creation and advancement within the industry.

As voters head to the polls on November 5th, the choice between the two candidates carries weighty implications for the solar industry and, by extension, the broader efforts to combat climate change. Stakeholders in the solar sector are urged to engage in advocacy and remain vigilant as the political landscape continues to evolve.

Sources

• SEIA (2019). "Solar Market Insight Report."

• EIA (2018). "U.S. Energy Information Administration: Solar Energy."

• NREL (2019). "Impacts of the 2018 Solar Tariffs on the U.S. Solar Market."

• NRDC (2020). "Impacts of Federal Climate Policy Rollbacks."

• SEIA (2021). "Investment Tax Credit."

• White House (2021). "Fact Sheet: The American Jobs Plan."

• UNFCC (2021). "U.S. Rejoins the Paris Agreement."